You're about to pay more for Netflix. Here's why that matters politically.
From the Department of Consequences
The legislative session has not ended well for Maine governor Janet Mills. While she may have, in the end, gotten her budget passed, it wasn’t easy, and it’s a bad one both in terms of optics and actual policy. The budget raises taxes, but not in a targeted way based on income, which is a perilous way in and of itself. Instead, the budget hiked taxes on common goods and services that ordinary, hard-working Mainers use every day. Once the people of Maine find out what’s in it, they should be righteously furious at Janet Mills and every single Democrat in the Maine Legislature - except Representative Sophia Warren of Scarborough, who wisely and courageously opposed it.
The budget raises the tax on cigarettes by 75%, from $2.00 to $3.50. Mills had initially requested $3.00 a pack, just a 50% increase - still a staggering amount. The budget also begins taxing streaming services like Netflix at the usual state sales tax rate of 5.5%. Given that many of us subscribe to multiple streaming services, and that all of them have been hiking their price as of late, that’s going to take a lot of money out of people’s pockets. If you only subscribe to the basic plans for Netflix and Hulu, that’ll cost you approximately an additional dollar a month.
While that’s not a lot of money, and none of us need to smoke or watch TV, that’s not the point - the point is that these are real products that ordinary people buy every day. The preferred approach of progressive to soak the rich isn’t a real solution, either - mostly because defining people as wealthy based on gross income is hugely misleading, but that’s another topic for another day. Still, it happened to land them on the right vote for this budget; it would have been nice if any others had the courage of Sophia Warren.
These tax increases might not be large, but they’re going to be noticed by a wide variety of people. They also further erode Mills’ promise during the 2016 campaign that she would not raise taxes if re-elected. She held to that promise at first, irking some on the left, but by eventually abandoning it she alienated moderates as well without earning additional support from liberals. Indeed, this minor skirmish over her latest budget proposal shows that she has only alienated them more since.
The fight over the budget isn’t just important because it shows that a political constant - Democrats raising taxes - remains true today no matter what they say, but because of the internal politics of it as well. Democrats aren’t fighting over whether to raise taxes, but over how much and over whom to target. Republicans might not always be fiscally pure in this way, either - the streaming tax was first proposed by former Governor Paul LePage, her conservative predecessor, for instance - but they’re still more likely to get right.
It’s important to keep in mind that tax increases are never necessary. No matter what the state is spending money on, there’s always the option to cut spending more. If laws mandate certain funding, those laws can be changed. There’s always a choice on both sides of the ledger, and there’s always consequences on both sides.
This fight over the budget, no matter how seemingly minor due to its brevity, shows that Maine Democrats remain divided. Even after losing control of Congress and the Presidency in 2024, there’s a large segment of the party that wants to push even farther to the left. They don’t admit the political reality of the progressive economic agenda: that nobody likes having to pay higher taxes. While polls may show that a majority of Americans favor raising taxes on the wealthy, there’s always a bit of a disconnect between that abstract idea and implementing actual policy. That’s where the internal disagreement amongst Democrats arises: some understand the practical impact of policymaking and others do not, like most voters.
If you read my column in the Portland Press Herald regularly, you know that the internal conflict within the Democratic Party is an issue I’ve consistently raised. We saw it play out nationally in the blame-game after Kamala Harris lost the presidential election, and we’re seeing it play out here in Maine as well. This budget fight - and Jared Golden’s decision not to run for governor - are two good examples of it. Both are also examples of how, regardless of which faction prevails, the outcome can be lose-lose for the party as a whole.
If progressives had been successful with this budget, they still would have been raising taxes on someone, and they still could have been attacked over it. The messaging outcome for Republicans is the same: Democrats will increase spending and raise your taxes; the only question is by how much. Similarly, if Golden had elected to run for governor, he would have faced a competitive primary and the Second District would have been left open. Indeed, he may still face a primary running for re-election.
Just as there are win-win outcomes possible in politics, and in life, there are lose-lose outcomes possible as well. Right now, the internal divide amongst Democrats is a lose-lose proposition for the party as a whole - regardless of which side prevails in a particular battle. Their only blessing as long as this division continues is that Republicans face their own internal divisions as well, and in Maine they’ve rarely been particularly adept at taking advantage of Democratic ones. For right now, Democrats’ best strategy might be to just hope that status quo continues.
Jim is also a weekly columnist for the Portland Press Herald, Maine’s largest daily newspaper. Follow him on X or on Facebook.