The Betting Line On The Blaine House
From the Department of Odds
Well, now we have real numbers to work with: candidates released their fundraising totals this week, and they pretty much lined up with my odds. They did, however, lead me to nudge Angus King III up over Troy Jackson, and Owen McCarthy and David Jones are both serious. I also dropped Jim Libby back quite a bit, since he’s attempting to qualify for Clean Elections funding.
For those unfamiliar with gambling (bless you!), here’s how odds work in terms of $1 bets. If someone is listed as +300, then you’ll be paid $4 if you bet $1, for $3 in winnings. If someone is listed as -300, then you’ll be paid $1.33 if you bet $1, for $0.33 in winnings. Generally speaking, negative odds are favored, so you’d win less in a purely hypothetical bet; positive odds are not, so you’d win more.
So, I’m ranking the gubernatorial candidates in terms of their hypothetical, entertainment-purposes only odds to win their respective primaries. Here’s Vegas-style odds on the gubernatorial candidates’ chances to win their respective primaries. I’m only including officially declared candidates, not hypothetical ones; I’ll add them in if and when they announce.
Odds To Win Democratic Primary
Hannah Pingree: -100
Shenna Bellows: +275
Angus King III: +350
Troy Jackson: +400
Kenneth Forrest Pinet: +2000
Odds To Win Republican Primary
Robert Charles: +250
Owen McCarthy: +300
David Jones: +350
James Libby: +500
Robert Wessels: +600
Steven Sheppard: +2500
Kenneth Capron: +3000
Odds To Win General Election (Independents Only)
Rick Bennett: +1500
Jim is also a weekly columnist for the Portland Press Herald, Maine’s largest daily newspaper. Follow him on X or on Facebook.